In what is going to be the closest election since Major defeated Kinnock in 1992, David Cameron looks to end 13 years of Labour rule by beating Gordon Brown. As the opinion polls are proving as varied as an episode of Dr Who, no-one is sure what statistics to believe. The Sun claims the Conservatives have a 41% approval rating compared with Labour on 31%, whilst The Guardian claims the Tories have a 2 point lead.
The close nature of the election is mirrored in where I live (when I'm not being a student): Solihull.
Having been a Tory stronghold since 1945, Solihull changed its allegiance for the first time since World War Two in 2005 by voting in Lib Dem Lorely Burt. Her grassroots campaigning is symbolic of the Lib Dems - very good at campaigning on a local level, less effective on the national landscape. She managed to beat John Taylor by a slim majority of 279 - a 10% swing.
Whilst Taylor admittedly did not want to run in 2005, the Tory's for some reason selected him. He did no campaigning, and the Lib Dems won, having made it priority seat number 2.
5 years on, Solihull is fairly pleased with Burt. She appears balanced (but then Lib Dems are) and seems to care about Solihull. She has grown on people, and has a chance at holding on to her seat. The problem is, if Taylor lost by only 279 without campaigning, what happens when the Conservatives do campaign?
Maggie Throup has been the Prospective Parliamentary candidate since 2005, and Solihull has received more money from Lord Ashcroft than any other seat. She hasn't put a foot wrong, and like Lorely, she is liked by the masses.
However, after 5 years people like Lorely. But the problem facing Silhillians is whether to vote for Lorely, seemingly a good MP, or vote Tory, the way it has always been and crucially - the best way to get rid of Labour. As a virtual Tory stronghold, the Labour Government has strangled the finances of Solihull Council - a change in government might rectify this.
Solihull was on Radio 4's 'The World at 1' on Wednesday, and the consensus was that whilst Burt was a good MP, people were tired of Labour, so might vote Conservative. Add in the boundary changes, and Ladbrokes predict a Conservative victory in Solihull.
In my opinion, it is going to be very close. People have grown attached to their Lib Dem, but I believe that this makes little difference on the national scene, as the Lib Dems could suffer in this election, further weakening their position. A Conservative victory may give Solihull a bigger place on the map, especially as we border the constituency of Caroline Spelman, an excellent Tory MP and sure to play a big role in any future Conservative government.
It's a tough choice, but either way, I think the winners are the people of Solihull. With Throup or Burt, they will have a good MP for the next Parliament.
Let the election fun begin!
